Tuesday, September 20, 2005

How many hands are they playing?

Here's a question somebody posted on rec.gambling.com

I was playing last night low limit hold'em and played the following hands over
the course of an hour or so. In the majority cases I was the aggressor i.e.
raiser and did'nt call raises with the marginal hands listed below.

QQ, AK, AJ, A10, QQ, AK, KK, A10, KJ, KQ, KJ, A9s, AJ, KJ.

In each case there was usually 3-4 callers as is the nature of low limit
hold'em. What % of these hands would you expect to win the pot with?

3-4 callers translates into them playing about 35% of their hands, on average.

So, one way to address this question is to ask how the range of hands above does against 3 players playing the top 35% of their hands. That would be roughly

44/A2s/K3s/Q5s/J5s/T7s/95s/86s/75s/65s/A9o/K8o/Q8o/J9o/T9o/98o and better


Using pokerstove, the range of hands our hero is playing has about

QQ v. 3 35% players has a 46% win %, an impact value of 1.84
A9s v. 3 35% players has a 27.4 win %, an impact value of 1.10
ATo v. 3 35% players has a 26.7 win %
KJo v. 3 35% players has a 24.8 win %, an impact value of .99

KJo is an overall loser (impact value of less than 1) against 3 players who are playing 35% of their hands.

So, if you're in a game where it appears most players are playing about 35% of their hands, you probably should avoid KJo from early position. But that doesn't' mean you should avoid it from late position. If you're on the button and 3-4 players who tend to play about 35% of their hands have limped in, then you're probably no up against 3 hands of the top 35% of hands -- in partiular, you probably aren't against an AA, KK, or QQ in any of those three hands.

You can use pokerstove to look at that situation, and I'll probably do that tomorrow.

Pokerstove is free, btw. If you don't have a copy you really should download one ad fool around with it some.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

An hour or so? Jesus Christ, I didn't catch that many playable hands last week.


9:20 AM  

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