Tuesday, April 08, 2008

World Series Live

Back in the days when the newest technological advancement in communications was television broadcast in color, the World Series of Poker was a gambling event run by gamblers. Today it's run by hotel people at Harrahs and reality TV experts at ESPN.

I think they're fixing to get bit on the ass by the gamblers who still play in the World Series of Poker.

WickedChopsPoker reports the plans under consideration for this summer
:
Play would be halted this July once the field was whittled down to its final nine players, and then delayed until three months later. The idea is to make the final table a big television event with plenty of lead time to hype the finalists and so no one knows who the winner is until the show airs.


Random Shuffles suggests that there might be some bad results from such a plan
Sure, let's give the final table three months to cut secret deals and work out what tapping twice vs tapping three times means when checking. Of course, they can do some of this in the short period between the last two sessions, but there's a limit on how much they can get accomplished. Over three months, you can not only work out a whole set of cheating signals, but you can practice your cheating.

But, the potential for cheating isn't just about deal making. Don't forget, we're dealing with gambler's here. Prediction markets are ripe for exploitation if the reality TV planners at ESPN and Harrahs actually give some gamblers a few extra months to set up something. What maroons.

The prediction market hustlers are already fixing Tennis and snooker matches. Does anybody really think it would be tough to exploit prediction markets on the winner of an over hyped WSOP final table given 3 months of hype time?

Even exchanges that are highly regulated and heavily policed can't keep out the cheats. We don't need to make it easy for them.

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4 Comments:

Blogger HighOnPoker said...

Great points, Gary. I would also add that a lot can happen in three months, including death. What happens if a final-table participant dies.

Also, does that mean that the top players don't get paid out for 3 months. There is a time value to money that must be considered. This can be somewhat alleviated if you give all players 9th place money immediately and then have them come back to fight for the rest.

Finally, this gives an advantage to lesser known players, who may have time to scout videos on their 8 competitors. This is a minor detail, since any adept player should be able to adjust, BUT its still an element of the game that would not take place if the final table was played as it usually is.

You are dead right. This is set up by reality show producers, and not poker players.

7:41 AM  
Blogger phlash74 said...

This is one of the worst ideas I've ever heard. The funniest part is how there's still going to be a couple days between the taping and the broadcast. Do they really believe that no one will find out who won in those couple days?

A much better idea is to start showing early events during the Series itself, and shortening the turnaround time between taping and broadcast. Besides, the people who are interested in watching almost always know the winner, but they still watch the show.

Michael

8:44 AM  
Blogger StB said...

Excellent post! Very naive on the part of Harrahs and ESPN to believe that money would not be bet hard on the long shot knowing they can pay a number of players enough to win more on the bets than they would from the game.

9:38 AM  
Blogger Gary Carson said...

Just a reminder.

I don't tolerate spam links. If you have one in an otherwise substantive comment it will probably just be deleted.

6:40 AM  

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